A taste for obscurity

The idea that online channels facilitate the distribution of a vast assortment of products is undisputed, but what consequence the increased supply will have on consumer demand is heavily debated. Proponents of the "long tail" principle argue that lower transaction and search costs will lead to a shift away from hit content and cause more fragmentation in consumers' choices. This perspective is in sharp contrast with the more established theory of superstars, which predicts that those forces will in fact homogenize consumption patterns, and a few superstar products will emerge as winners in the market place. In this study, using two large customer transactions data sets obtained from an online music service and an online DVD rental business, which together cover over a million products and over 20 million individual transactions, I examine consumption patterns for obscure and hit products.