Seasonality of labour markets

This research paper provides an overview of trends in seasonal employment in Canada and makes comparisons with the United States and among Canadian provinces. The review is based on monthly labour market data from Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey for the years 1976 through to 1997. The purpose of the analysis is to improve our understanding of seasonality in labour market aggregates and their impact on the functioning of the labour market, the unemployment rate, and on the under utilisation of labour.

The paper analyses seasonality in the labour market by comparing raw and seasonally adjusted data. A number of estimates of seasonality are computed using data taken from the Labour Force Survey. Amplitude seasonality is computed by dividing the actual by seasonally adjusted estimates and by taking the difference between the annual maximum and minimum values. The mean seasonal variation is the annual average of the absolute difference between the ratio of unadjusted to seasonal adjusted estimates in percentage and 100 per cent. The peak-trough measure is the excess of the peak 2-month average level relative to the lowest 2-month average for the same year, using seasonally unadjusted data.