Independent assessment of the Afghan National Security Forces

The CNA report concludes that the security environment in Afghanistan will be more challenging after the draw-down of international forces in 2013; that the Taliban insurgency will become a greater threat to stability than now; and that a small group of al Qaeda members will remain active in remote valleys of northeastern Afghanistan. We also conclude that the ANSF will require a security force (Afghan National Army and Police) of 373,400 people, smaller than their present size but significantly larger than was envisaged at the 2012 NATO summit. A force of lesser size than this would increase the risk of instability. The ANSF we recommend is different in composition and in deployment than the existing ANSF. We conclude that the ANSF will be more successful if it has fewer infantry units and more support units, and if a portion of the ANSF were re-allocated from low threat to higher threat areas. We also conclude that continued advisory, material, and financial support from the United States and the international community is essential to the viability of the ANSF and the security of Afghanistan.