Habitat capability model for birds wintering in the Black Hills, South Dakota

Habitat models have considerable economic effects on management decisions and are used to predict consequences of land management decisions on wildlife. The Black Hills National Forest uses the habitat capability model (HABCAP), but its accuracy relative to resident wintering bird populations is largely unknown. We tested the model's predictive accuracy for resident nongame birds wintering in 11 vegetation structural stages of ponderosa pine, quaking aspen/paper birch, and meadows in the Black Hills, South Dakota. Six species, hairy woodpecker, gray jay, black-capped chickadee, white-breasted nuthatch, red-breasted nuthatch, and dark-eyed junco, had HABCAP coefficients for vegetation structural stages during winter. Red crossbills were not previously included in the model, so we developed HABCAP coefficients for them. Predicted abundance of winter birds in vegetation structural stages based on HABCAP coefficients differed from observed abundance for gray jays, black-capped chickadees, white-breasted nuthatches, red-breasted nuthatches, and dark-eyed juncos. HABCAP coefficients were modified to reflect observed abundance patterns of birds. These changes to HABCAP coefficients should provide managers with more appropriate estimates of land management impacts on nongame birds wintering in the Black Hills.