DIPLOMATIC HISTORY

"The Protocol on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations and the Protocol on the Development of Bilateral Relations between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Turkey (hereafter called "the Protocols") were signed on October 10, 2009. The Protocols represented an unprecedented advancement in relations between Turkey and Armenia. However, failure to ratify them was a significant bilateral, regional, and international setback. This monograph is a diplomatic history of events leading up to the signing of the Protocols. It assesses the work of Turkish and Armenian diplomats negotiating the Protocols and the role of Swiss mediation, as well as the positions of the United States, France, Russia, and Iran. The monograph evaluates ensuing problems, including conditions imposed on ratification, as well as the effect of domestic politics in Turkey and Armenia on normalization. Turkish-Armenian relations are also considered in regional context. The Middle East is in the midst of transformation, with Turkey playing a central role. Turkey is involved in the troubled transitions of Egypt and Libya, and at odds with Syria and Iran. Other regional issues, such as the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict, Cyprus, and relations with Armenia are stalemated. At present, Armenia is not a foreign policy priority for Ankara. The Protocols may be dormant, yet they still provide a roadmap to the way forward. Studying the history of Turkish-Armenian rapprochement serves as the basis for specific recommendations provided in this monograph aimed at (i) intensifying civil society activities, (ii) expanding commercial cooperation, and (iii) stimulating intergovernmental contact. These pages are more than a record of historical events. Lessons can also be applied to conflict resolution efforts in other countries facing similar challenges.