Seismic Shift

For analysts in and out of governments, the upheaval in the Middle East lends itself to reflections about how regional experts with deep knowledge of the Middle East, and those who use distinct political science or other methodologies to understand processes of change, fared in their assessments of the likelihood of change. The Stimson Center invited a group of experts who represent distinct, non-governmental institutional perspectives to look back on the work of these sectors, and evaluate how they looked at prospects for change in the Middle East. The sectors include: university scholars, think tanks, democracy and human rights non-governmental organizations (NGOs), journalists, social media, and private business. The study addresses in particular these questions: 1. What were the main judgments about prospects for change in the Middle East from 2005 to 2010? 2. Were there underlying theories or models of change that guided the analysis? 3. What were major turning points or 'light bulb' moments in the analysis? 4. Will the methods of analyzing the region change as a result of the upheaval?