Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

Australians have long worried about whether Indonesia is 'special' or 'normal'. Instead, we need to deal with Indonesia as it really is - a country experiencing simultaneously the challenges of political reform, economic development and a shifting regional security environment. The country's political future is less certain than we would hope: after SBY's term of government ends, the choice of a successor will be critical in determining the future of reform. We can't rule out that Indonesia might slide back to old ways of doing business - democratisation is a fraught process. As the Indonesian economy grows, so too do the prospects for Indonesia to establish its natural position as the leader of Southeast Asia. As the world is re-examining Indonesia, so too Indonesia is looking afresh at the world - more interested in external issues than it was a decade ago. The Southeast Asian subregion increasingly finds itself at the centre of a more strongly interconnected Indo-Pacific region - so Indonesia's strategic importance is going up. It's important for Australia to build a better strategic relationship with Indonesia. The two are complementary partners. Australia should be proactive in exploring new opportunities for cooperation with a reform minded Indonesia - it's in our interests to draw Indonesia into a more important strategic role in regional security.